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Premiership

Birmingham City vs Arsenal

Arsenal would be looking to bounce back from 2 disappointing results by winning at Birmingham to maintain their 5 point gap or even increase their lead at the top.

Birmingham would feel that if they could get a draw at the Emirates than they can either get the same result or provide a shock against the league leaders but it would not be easy.

Arsenal should win this but with some difficulty.

Liverpool Vs Middlesboro

You never know what you are going to get from Liverpool and especially from their manager. The 1 thing you do know you are not going to get is the same side that beat Inter Milan on Tuesday. Middlesboro have not lost a game this year and would like to keep that run going but if Liverpool play to their full potential they should win. It would not surprise me if this ends in a draw but I really do expect Liverpool to with this game.

Newcastle United Vs Manchester United

Newcastle have not won under Kevin Keegan and after tomorrow, I expect that record to continue as anything other than a Manchester United victory would be a total surprise.

They would not lose 6-0 as they did at Old Trafford but I still expect them to lose against a team that would be buoyant after decent results against Arsenal and Lyon in the champion’s league.

The 1 saving grace for Newcastle is that Manchester United do not always play well immediately after a champions league tie but unfortunately Newcastle do not have the desired quality to trouble the champions.They did get an improbable draw against Manchester United last season and Keegan always wants to beat Ferguson so you never know.

Carling Cup Final

Chelsea Vs Tottenham Hotspurs

Juande Ramos is a past master in winning cup finals but I cannot see them defeating Chelsea on Sunday bearing in mind they played 2 days after Chelsea did in the midweek and also how very organised Chelsea are defensively.

If Ledley King plays then Spurs would stand a slight chance as he provides so much defensive prowess to them but if he does not then I do not give them a chance.

Spurs have all the flair and attacking prowess but Chelsea are a very hard nut to crack and Tottenham have to score 1st to stand any chance.

I would like to see Spurs win the cup but I just cannot see past Chelsea winning it.

SerieA

Roma Vs Fiorentina

This is the game of the weekend in Italy and pits 2 of the most attractive teams against each other.

Roma managed to defeat Real Madrid in the champions league on Tuesday and that would have boosted their confidence after some shaky results whilst Fiorentina defeated Rosenborg to go through to the next phase of the UEFA cup just last night.

The fact that Fiorentina played 2 days after and do not exactly have a very good away record makes me opt firmly towards Roma.

Sampdoria Vs Inter Milan

Inter would be looking to put their 1st defeat in 5 months against Liverpool firmly behind them and I strongly fancy them to beat Sampdoria at Genoa.

Sampdoria, inspired by Antonio Cassano did well to defeat city rivals, Genoa last weekend but I do not see them repeating the trick against Inter unless Inter decide to implode by having a man sent off early again.

Inter do have problems at the back though with Ivan Cordoba ruled out for the season joining Walter Samuel as casualties for the season.

Reginna Vs Juventus

Juventus are coming off 2 excellent results and would be full of confidence when they face relegation threatened Reginna on Saturday evening knowing fully well that a victory would catapult them to 2nd albeit for a few hours.

This would not be easy as Juventus have shown this season that they tend not to win games you fully expect them to and have drawn a lot of games they were expected to win. But I do think they would win this game but not very comfortably.

Milan Vs Palermo

Like Liverpool, you never know what you are going to get and this is not an easy game to call. You would think Milan should win this game but they have drawn far too many home games to consider any game a home banker.

Pato and Kaka are back so that should help and they would also be buoyed by their midweek performance at Arsenal.

I expect a very narrow victory for the Rossoneri.

La Liga

Sevilla Vs Zaragoza

Sevilla are quite formidable at home and Zaragoza are inconsistent everywhere so I would expect Sevilla to win this game.

Barcelona Vs Levante

Barcelona looked like they are coming back into some semblance of form with a number of key players performing well against Celtic including Ronaldinho, Deco, Thierry Henry and most especially Lionel Messi.

Samuel Etoo is back as well and Levante, which is possibly the poorest team in La Liga this season do not have a prayer.

Real Madrid Vs Getafe

This is a local derby with the added spice of Real Madrid manager Bernd Schuster coming up against his former club and Getafe manager, Michael Laudrup coming up against a side he graced so well as a player.

Real were unlucky to be defeated at Roma and have a 100% home record in la Liga this season. They also have the additional boost of Robinho returning to the fold so I fully expect them to be too strong for a Getafe side that played yesterday in Uefa Cup defeating AEK Athens 3-0.

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Lionel Messi was born in Rosario city on June 24, 1987. He started playing football at the age of five for Grandoli, a club coached by his father. Messi switched to Newell’s Old Boys in 1995. At the age of 11, he was diagnosed with a growth hormone deficiency. Every month Messi required treatment for the illness that cost over 500 Pounds. River Plate showed interest in Messi’s progress, but did not have enough money to pay for his treatment. FC Barcelona was made aware of Messi talent. After watching him play, Barcelona signed him and offer to pay for the medical bills if he was willing to move to Spain.

Messi is a player with exceptional quality. He is highly creative, and has the skills to take on defenders with ease. He is a versatile left-footed player who can play either in the middle or on either wing, or even as a centre forward. Messi makes up for the lack of height with his speed and agility. His sudden changes in pace make him a true problem for the defenders. In addition, his accurate powerful shot make him truly unique in free kick and corner situations. He has drawn comparisons to Diego Maradona, and indeed Maradona himself named Messi his «successor».

In club football, Messi made his debut against Espanyol on October 16, 2004, becoming the third-youngest player ever to play for FC Barcelona and youngest club player who played in La Liga at that that time (a record broken by team mate Bojan Krkic in September 2007). He scored his first senior goal against Albacete Balompié on May 1, 2005. Messi was 17 years, 10 months and 7 days old at that time, becoming the youngest player to ever score in a La Liga game for FC Barcelona until 2007 when Bojan Krkic broke this record.

Messi won the Under 20 World Cup in Holland with Argentina. He was crowned the leading goalscorer and voted best player in the tournament. Aged 18 years, he had become one of the hottest properties in the world game. Shortly after, he made his first full international appearance in a friendly against Hungary. In 2005, José Pekerman called Messi up to the senior Argentine national team. He made his debut on August 17, 2005 against Hungary. He was sent off in the 63rd minute, just 40 seconds after he came in as a substitute. The referee found Messi to have elbowed defender Vilmos Vanczák, who was tugging Messi’s shirt. He left the pitch disappointed and in tears.

Since then, Lionel Messi has developed into a more complete and mature player. There are still many years left in his career. Everyone is waiting for him to emulate Diego Maradona success by guiding Argentina to win the World Cup again.

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If you read any book about sports betting or any kind of article about sports betting, what will you learn? Bet the underdogs! Every book, website, tout, service, you name it, are always telling you to bet the dogs. If everyone is betting the dogs, are the odds for favourites too high?

European football leagues are starting soon and to prepare myself for them, I did a small study using the data from the last two seasons from Premier League, Bundesleague, Serie A and La Liga Primera.

Premier League

Dogs 760 / 542 / 0.71 / -21.8k

Fav. 760 / 728 / 0.96 / -3.2k

Bundesleague

Dogs 612 / 578 / 0.94 / -3.4k

Fav. 612 / 563 / 0.92 / -4.9k

Serie A

Dogs 760 / 551 / 0.73 / -20.9k

Fav. 760 / 717 / 0.94 / -4.3k

La Liga Premier

Dogs 760 / 748 / 0.98 / -1.2k

Fav. 760 / 704 / 0.93 / -5.6k

How do you read that table? Let’s take Premier League for example. In the past 2 seasons you have had 760 games. If you had played every dog, your total odds would have been 542 (btw, I am using the European style odds, 1.35 etc.), return 0.71 (542/760) and for a $100 bet on every dog, you would have lost $21800.

What is interesting is that playing the favourites is a much better tactic in general, IF(!) you play every game. Only in Spain, your best tactic is to play every dog and almost break even.

Well, nobody plays every game. That would be insane. The question now is: can we use some very simple methods to find an edge from either the dogs or the favourites? I know for a fact that you can find an edge using sophisticated probability models and shopping for the best odds BUT for this article we would like to find simple methods for the average punter, who likes to bet for fun and TV-games, and not just for profit.

How about playing only home dogs, home favourites, away dogs, away favourites?

Premier League Bundesleague Serie A La Liga Premier

home fav 0.98 0.91 0.94 0.93

home dogs 0.84 0.94 0.77 1.03

away fav 0.91 0.96 0.95 0.93

away dogs 0.66 0.94 0.71 0.97

home fav 1.55 0.98 0.91 0.90 0.92

away fav 1.55 0.85 0.95 0.95 0.92

Home dogs in La Liga, home favourites under 1.55 in Serie A and away favourites under 1.55 in Premier- and Bundesleague and Serie A would have been a winning bet. Other possible good bets were home favourites in general in Premier, away fav 1.55 1.02 0.95 0.95 0.96

away fav 1.55 0.89 0.99 0.99 0.96

So, in Premier League, play every home favourite and big away favourite, dogs in Bundesleague and big away favourites, big favourites in Serie A and dogs and big away favourites in Spain, and pick the highest odd possible, and you will be just fine!

In the future I will go through more powerful, mathematical methods for finding an overlay in sports betting.

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1. St Iker: Any side that aspires to win football’s greatest prize needs a world class goalkeeper on top of his game. Italy had Buffon in 2006, and for South Africa 2010 read Iker Casillas. The Madrid stopper is considered Spain’s finest keeper of all time; lightning reactions, in command of his area and solid with his feet; he has it all. In the Bernabeu they call him ‘San Iker’, and after saving their skin on literally hundreds of occasions, you do begin to if there are any extra-terrestrial powers hidden within those gloves.

2. For club and country: Right across the Spanish first eleven you will find pockets of players that ply their trade together at club level, and that understanding is irreplaceable. In defence you have Pique and Puyol from Barca, in midfield Xavi and Iniesta (and Sergio Busquets when Senna isn’t available) and upfront; Villa and Silva from Valencia. They all know each other so well they have developed an almost telepathic understanding, and instantly transform club form onto the international stage.

3. Euro Euforia: For years Spain had gone into tournaments among the favourites, only to disappoint time and time again. Them and England had mastered the art of crashing out in the quarter-finals. But Euro 2008 changed all that. Whilst England didnt even manage to qualify, Spain waltzed their way to Vienna and defeated the Germans to lift the Euro 2008 trophy. They have finally discarded the ‘Perennial Underachievers’ tag that had plagued them for so long; now for the World Cup.

4. Villa Maravilla: Is their a more lethal marksmen in the game right now than David Villa? Right now only Eto’o and Luis Fabiano for Brazil comes close. The other pretender will be lining up right next to him; Fernando Torres. Villa was a revelation in Euro 2008, scoring 4 in 4 to send Spain rocketing towards the final, finishing the tournament as top scorer. Unfortunately for the Valencia hotshot he was unable to play against the Germans due to injury, but he will be raring to put that right in South Africa. The striker has 33 goals for Spain, and has scored three goals already in a World Cup: he has to be a solid bet for topscorer in 2010’s showpiece.

5. Superstylin: Is there an international team that plays with the same panache and flair than Spain right now? The answer has to be a resounding no. Spain have won over the world with their characteristic incisive, one-touch passing. They score goals for fun, as their qualifying group rivals will testify. They run rings round teams, grinding them into submission, almost toying with their opposition at times. They have a settled first eleven and fixed formations for any given circumstance or fixture. Teams just cannot get the ball off them, and as any wily football coach will tell you: you cant score goals if you don’t have the ball.

6. Fight with Flair: As mentioned above we all knew about Spain’s flair, but as yesterdays friendly against Argentina showed, they’re not afraid to get stuck in. Argentina came out in the second half with a gameplan to get stuck into Spain’s miniature midfield men. Masherano and Gago set about Xavi, Iniesta and Alonso with a ruthlessness one would expect from a team led by Diego Maradona. But Spain gave as good as they got, and never lost their heads in the heat of the battle. Villa, Alonso, Xavi and co. showed they can fight fire with fire, and Spain ended up putting the Argentinians to bed. This bodes well for a World Cup where teams will have no choice but to bully Spain.

7. Supersubs: When Cesc Fabregas, Xabi Alonso, Pepe Reina and Alvaro Negredo find it difficult to break into the first eleven, you know you´re dealing with a special group of players. They have world-class players as back-up in all departments: Senna gets injured, in comes Busquets. Silva needs a rest, let’s bring on Juan Mata. Third choice stiker Negredo feels like a breather? Bring on La Liga’s top scorer from 2008, Dani Güiza. Incredible.

8. Mixing it up: The Spanish have a fantastic mix of wise old heads and spriteful youth. Players like Puyol, Casillas, Xavi and Senna have been there and done it. The younger players such as Iniesta, Silva and Cesc were all part of the Euro 2008 winning team, so nothing will phase them next year. And with some cracking youth coming through in the shape of Jesus Navas, Juan Mata, Pablo Hernandez and Nacho Monreal, Spain are in a fantastic position to let them loose in friendlies before next summer.

9. Anybody out there? Who are realistic challengers to Spain’s assault on South Africa? Brazil, Argentina, Italy, France and Germany are the usual suspects. England and Holland will make a splash, but you can normally rely on those already mentioned to mount the more serious challenges. Spain have beaten them all in the last two years, with the exception of Brazil, and we were denied our opportunity to see them pit their wits against each other at the Confederations Cup due to an unexpected giantkilling from USA. Man for man, I would put my 10euros on Spain, but in no way should one underestimate the Brazilians, who always seem to wheel out the performances for the big occasions.

10. It’s their turn! Brazil, Argentina, Italy, France and Germany have all won the thing, so it has to be Spain’s turn, right? France proved you can win a World Cup and European Championship in succession with their double in 1998 and 2000, so Spain shouldn’t feel overawed by the prospect. World Cups are naturally difficult to predict, and anything can happen in 90 minutes of knock-out football. But I’ve already made my prediction, and if ‘La Roja’ manage to shake off the burden of expectation and turn it on in South Africa, the trophy will surely be heading to Barajas Airport on July 12th 2010.

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